Just in case you missed it, here's a quick summary of what's been going on.
- The European country Ukraine has publicly stated that it wishes to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which is a defensive alliance comprised of the United States, Canada, and many European nations (see Note 1) (1).
- Neighboring country Russia sees potential NATO expansion as a violation of terms agreed to in 1990, when the alliance (allegedly) agreed not to expand "an inch to the east" of its then-boundaries. They have demanded that Ukraine its aspirations of joining the group (2).
- NATO has responded that it has an "open-door policy", and that they cannot rule out Ukraine possibly joining the alliance at some future date.
- In addition to expansion concerns, Russia has alleged that NATO has committed several violations of the "Minsk Protocol", a treaty originally agreed to in 2014 (3).
- In December of 2021, Russia began to move ground forces to its border with Ukraine, giving as pretext that they were conducting military "exercises".
- Presently, there are approximately one hundred fifty thousand Russian troops stationed in the border area (4).
- American and NATO leaders believe that, based on the above pretenses, these Russian forces are preparing to invade Ukraine.
As US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this past Friday, it indeed does seem that the world is in "a moment of peril" (5).
In the thirty-something years since the Cold War ended, we have never been so close to world war as we are right now.
And it doesn't take much of a spark in a powder keg to set off a huge explosion. History has repeatedly proven this to be true. For example:
- The 1914 assassination of Austrian-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand touched off World War I.
- Austria-Hungary blamed the killing on forces loyal to Serbia, and declared war. Serbia was allied with the Central Powers (Russia, Germany, and the Ottoman Empire); when Russia came to Serbia's defense, the regional conflict quickly became a clash between world powers (6).
- Adolf Hitler used anger over German losses from World War I as a pretext for his initial "putsch" (see Note 2). Through encouraging a general climate of outrage, he was able to overthrow the sitting German government. This resulted in the Nazi Party's rise to power, and ultimately, World War II (7).
- During the Cold War, we came close to the outbreak of World War III several times. The most notable of these occasions took place in 1962, when the United States demanded that the Soviet Union remove multiple nuclear missile bases that nation had installed in Cuba (just ninety miles away from the tip of Florida) (see: Cuban Missile Crisis) (8).
It has occurred to me that perhaps I am getting worried over nothing. There's a distinct possibility that all this talk of war could simply be a "wag the dog" scenario; that is, a hastily-planned scheme designed to distract the public from other more domestic problems (not to be confused with a "false flag operation") (see Note 3).
However, it certainly appears to me like Russia is getting ready to do something. So here's how things might shake out.
My opinion is that if an invasion happens, it probably won't occur until sometime after the Winter Olympics. Russian president Vladimir Putin knows that military action during the Games would likely outrage other main powers, and provide a valid reason for a counter-attack.
That being said, if Russia does indeed cross into Ukraine, the United States will have no choice but to become militarily involved (honoring an alliance we have with that country).
After that, the dominos will fall quite quickly; enter the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (among many others), stage right.
This is big, people. This is BIG, and it is (seemingly enough) REAL. Pray for peace, and for cooler heads to prevail (if you are religiously inclined).
Note 2: "Putsch", noun. Definition: A secretly plotted and suddenly executed attempt to overthrow a government (12).
Note 3: "False flag", noun. Definition: A hostile or harmful action (such as an attack) that is designed to look like it was perpetrated by someone other than the person or group responsible for it (13).
No comments:
Post a Comment