Here's the way I see things shaking out, as of 7:00 PM Eastern time on July 10.
(If you can't see the above picture, it is at https://www.270towin.com/maps/ex8Yn)
Now for some in-depth analysis of this map.
Looking at the current polls, I find that there's a close contest for the state of Minnesota. This is significant because "the Gopher State" is usually a Democratic stronghold. As a matter of fact, the state is a must-win for Democrats. No Democrat in (approximately) seventy years has been able to win the presidency without capturing Minnesota (1). It'll be a close call, but I'm putting the state in the column of the Democrats.
We now move to the southeast, and "Florida, Florida, Florida" (Tim Russert). Things in the "Sunshine State" also appear to be significantly tight. Nevertheless, due to a GOP governor and a large Trump influence, I say that state will remain Republican. Note to the national party...DON'T SCREW IT UP.
Having talked about Minnesota and Florida, what are the other "battleground states"?
- Pennsylvania. The "Keystone State" awards twenty electoral votes, and is the second biggest prize in the northeast, behind only New York (2). I rate this as a must-win for Republicans.
Taking my other predictions into consideration, I find that there are eight scenarios in which Trump retains the White House (not including an electoral college tie/no majority). In six of these eight, Pennsylvania MUST go to the GOP (3). Clearly, this is a vital state for Trump's re-election prospects.
- North Carolina. With its fifteen electoral votes, "the Tar Heel State" will be a big part of the vote in the southeastern region (2). According to the most recent polls, Democrats have a slight lead here.
In three of the six scenarios that involve Pennsylvania, Republicans must win North Carolina (3). As such, I rate this state a must-win.
- Michigan. The "Wolverine State" carries sixteen electoral votes (2). It is usually a very competitive state, at least as far as the Upper Midwest goes (1).
Looking at the other scenarios that involve Pennsylvania, I find that there are three of these that also involve a GOP win in Michigan. In the two cases where the Republicans fail to carry Pennsylvania, Trump must win the "home of Motown" in order to be re-elected (3). Thus, I rate Michigan as a borderline must-win.
- Arizona. Out west, this key state gives eleven electoral votes to its winner (2). It's usually a Republican stronghold; however, the current polls give Democrats about a three point edge.
It's clear that in the western region of the country, the GOP needs every vote that it can muster. So too will be the case in Arizona. I rate this state as a should-win.
Finally, let's look at the great state of...
- Nevada. The "Silver State" awards a prize of six electoral votes to its victor (2). Recent polls show that the Democrats have about a four point lead in the state.
With the Pacific Northwest firmly in Democratic hands, it is essential that Republicans at least be competitive here. As such, I rate Nevada as a should-win.
All told (close states not included), and as of now, I give Democrat Joe Biden a 237-233 edge over President Trump.
With about four months until the general election, I see this race as being MUCH closer than what a lot of pundits are saying it is. It will be very interesting to see who, when all is said and done, comes out on top.
Sources:
1. Personal knowledge.
2. 270towin.com, 2020. 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map. [image] Available at: <https://www.270towin.com/maps/ex8Yn> [Accessed 10 July 2020].
3. 270towin.com, 2020. Road To 270: Combination Detail. [image] Available at: <https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-combinations/?mapstr=22201111122122122221110122202211101221012222211112212221> [Accessed 10 July 2020].
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